Sudan's civil war continues unabated, with the United Nations labelling it the cause of the world's deadliest famine in four decades. With over 150,000 lives lost and more than 14 million people displaced, including two million fleeing to neighbouring countries like Chad, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, Sudan epitomises a neglected global crisis.
In March 2024, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling for an “immediate cessation of hostilities”, and in April, the International Humanitarian Conference for Sudan pledged over two billion pounds in aid. However, these measures have done little to resolve the entrenched conflict between Sudan’s two warring factions.
History of Violence
Tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by Mohamed Hamdan “Hemedti” Dagalo erupted into full-scale violence in the country’s capital, Khartoum, in April 2023. The roots of the infighting go back to 2019 and the ousting of Sudan’s long-time dictator, Omar al-Bashir, in 2019.
Bashir ruled Sudan for 30 years and was widely reported to use religious persecution and militias like Janjaweed—now known as RSF—to suppress his dissenters. By 2019, he was ousted by a coup by SAF and RSF, supported by Sudanese citizens who were protesting Bashir’s rule on the streets.
The subsequent attempt at a civilian-military governance under the Sovereign Council, with economist Abdalla Hamdok as prime minister brought some hope for democratic reform. However, in 2021, another military coup resulted in Hamdok’s arrest and removal from prime ministership. After Hamdok’s removal, international financial institutions paused debt relief and aid, leaving the country without resources to address its economic woes. Inflation has soared, basic services have crumbled, and millions face poverty and starvation.
The RSF is rooted in its Janjaweed militia origins; and infamous for atrocities during the Darfur conflict. News agencies have reported instances from Sudan of ethnic cleansing, sexual violence, and abductions.
The international community’s response has been considered inadequate to the crisis, and within Sudan, the SAF and RSF have opposed international oversight as well. In May 2023, SAF’s General al-Burhan demanded that the UN remove its envoy Volker Perthes, Peace talks in Jeddah, brokered by the United States and Saudi Arabia, collapsed repeatedly, as neither side adhered to their commitments. The SAF also withdrew support from the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an East African bloc, in early 2024.
The toll of the conflict has been significant. The UN estimates around 14 million people have been displaced due to the war. The international body also said 24.6 million people urgently need food aid in the country. Hunger, in Sudan, has been weaponised by both RSF and SAF with factions of each raiding warehouses from aid agencies. The UN has warned of an impending famine in the country that will likely be “the worst famines in history.”
Role of Arms and Regional MIC
Sudan’s strategic location along the Red Sea and its gold reserves make it a focal point for competing powers. Gold smuggling funds the RSF’s operations and, indirectly, Russia’s war in Ukraine. The involvement of foreign actors complicates peace efforts and threatens to destabilize neighbouring countries, triggering mass migration and creating opportunities for extremist groups.
The RSF reportedly receives arms from the United Arab Emirates, while the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary organization, supplies missiles. Meanwhile, reports say the SAF has acquired drones from Iran. These regional powers have intervened to transform a civil war into a proxy conflict.
Recent developments on the ground show that the RSF has gained significant territory over SAF. In July 2024, the militia secured its supply routes from South Sudan by capturing Sennar and West Kordofan. These territorial gains could be a turning point in the conflict, however, they also signal an intensification of violence with civilians caught in the crossfire.
